Welcome back #AllegedlyArmy to another edition of 'The Napkin," your weekly CFB gambling preview!
I know what you're thinking:
"Where were you last week Sergio? Did you lose all your money on those two horrendous dropped balls at the end of the North Carolina vs Florida State game two weeks ago?"
Well, I was fulfilling the "when my family visits, you must be around to spend some quality time together" clause in my boyfriend contract. As for the 2nd question, lower your voice.
Regardless, we're back! Let's put our financial security in the hands of 18-22-year-olds who are playing sports yet again!
SPREADS
Minnesota (-18.5) vs Maryland - Friday Night
So as it turns out, losing offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State made a pretty big difference in the Golden Gophers offense. Despite controlling the time of possession, Minnesota was outgained by over 150 yards and had two turnovers against a Michigan defense that has always played well under Jim Harbaugh. Maryland, on the other hand, is bad. Like, really bad. They put up three, yes the number is so low I have to spell it out, points against Northwestern and Alabama transfer Taulia Tagovialoa, younger brother of Tua, threw for 94 yards with three interceptions. Expect Minnesota to get back on track with their veteran QB Tanner Morgan at the helm.
#16 Kansas State (+5) vs West Virginia
I say this with a straight face: this is the most exciting game in the Big 12 this week. Yes, Texas heads into Stillwater to take on an Oklahoma State team that's atop the conference. But Kansas State is 4-1 this year including 2-0 on the road. West Virginia has been playing very disciplined football since the end of last year and head into this game with a 3-0 record at home. Here's where the excitement comes in: Kansas State is 6-0 (!!!) against the spread (ATS) in their last six Big 12 games. Both of these teams have been punching above their weight this year and the Wildcats have already shown us that going on the road in the Big 12 isn't a big deal to them, cc: Oklahoma. I'll take the points here.
#23 Iowa State (-28) vs Kansas
Let me be the first to say that I was wrong about Tyler's beloved Brock Purdy. I willingly hopped off the Brockasaurus on an earlier episode of Sideline Judgement and I was wrong. Happy, Tyler? Good. Now that we're done with that, Iowa State is a good football team with an above-average college QB and a defensive wizard in head coach Matt Campbell. Kansas head coach Les Miles is back after recovering from COVID-19 and star RB Pooka Williams has opt-ed out of the season to be closer to his mother. Also, Kansas is bad. Iowa State to cover. You're welcome, Tyler.
MONEYLINE
Rice (+100) vs Southern Miss
Rice played their first game of the season last week and it ended like this.
For those keeping track, that's a QUADRUPLE DOINK. No idea if that's ever happened before. As the tweet says, they would go on to lose in double OT. Southern Miss is dealing with their own issues off the field. They are on their third head coach OF THE SEASON. Jay Hopson resigned after an opening game loss to South Alabama. He was then replaced by interim head coach Scotty Walden, who left Southern Miss this week to take the head coaching job at FCS Austin Peay, all while dealing with COVID-19. I'll take my chances with the team that was four bounces off the goalposts over the team with its third head coach of the season.
Northwestern (+115) vs Iowa
If you stopped paying attention to CFB after the 2019 season, this pick would make no sense to you. Northwestern had, literally, the worst offense in the nation last year. Fans had been calling on Pat Fitzgerald to make a change at offensive coordinator and it took a global pandemic for him to listen. Mike Bajakian has injected life into this offense and Big 10 teams are still in the adjustment phase. I expect Iowa to be caught off guard with this revamped Wildcats offense.
OVER/UNDER
Hawaii vs Wyoming - Under 60 - Friday Night
Welcome back to OUR Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii. CFB just isn't the same without those late-night live bets. Now that that's out of the way, it's gonna be cold out in Wyoming. This game will be played in the '30s. Pair that with 20 MPH winds in a stadium known for letting the wind play a factor, you got yourself a low scoring affair.
UCF vs Houston - Over 82.5
I feel like I make "bet the UCF over" a weekly tradition. These teams have offenses that can flat out score points. This was a bit of a "let's see what happens" pick. UCF's game against Memphis resulted in over 100 combined points. I feel like Houston has that kind of firepower in them, and we already know DIllion Gabriel can sling it. Yay points!
Memphis vs #7 Cincinnati - Over 56.5
Memphis, another team that can score a boatload of points whenever they want, has a tough matchup here. This Cincinnati defense is good. Their offense does such a good time of controlling the ball that the Bearcats defense can stay fresh every time they take the field. The key for the over to hit here is the Memphis defense. If they can get off the field and give their offense a chance to make this a shootout, I will be very happy.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
7-POINT TEASE
#4 Notre Dame (-13) vs Georgia Tech
LSU vs Auburn (+8.5)
Texas vs #6 Oklahoma State (+3.5)
#15 North Carolina (PK) vs Virginia
#24 Oklahoma (-8.5) vs Texas Tech
Alright, there's a lot to unpack here.
1) Notre Dame is going to take care of business against a Georgia Tech team that has come back to earth after the early season hype.
2) LSU is going to be without Myles Brennan as he is out again with a lower leg injury. In comes TJ Finley, who is starting on the road against an Auburn team that is traditionally really good at home. Bo Nix, the sophomore QB for Auburn, is night and day when he is at home compared to being on the road. I expect him to regain his home form against an LSU defense that has been *checks notes* really bad.
3) Texas is bad. Oklahoma State is good. That's it.
4) Throughout the past decade, Ohio State vs Penn State has been close every time. Penn State played really well last week despite losing to Indiana on a controversial call at the end of overtime. I expect Ohio State to win this game, but expect for Penn State to keep it close. The extra seven points are my insurance in case we have a garbage time TD by Ohio State.
5) I really like North Carolina against a Virginia team that hasn't been able to replace the offense Bryce Perkins gave them last year. Make sure to keep the faith if this is close in the first half, as UNC tends to be a 2nd half team.
6) This is Spencer Rattler's "settle down" game. I have full faith that Oklahoma will take care of business.
No "Parley of the Week" this week. I put all my teaser/parley eggs in the teaser basket this week.
"THE NAPKIN"
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